New projections show prisons would have run out of space by June without sentencing reforms
New government analysis has revealed that England and Wales would have entirely run out of prison places by early summer 2026 if urgent legislative action had not been taken.
Figures published on 29 January alongside the first statutory Annual Prison Capacity Statement show that, without the Sentencing Act receiving Royal Assent last week, demand for prison places would have exceeded supply as early as June. Ministers said this would have left police unable to make arrests and courts unable to remand or sentence dangerous offenders to custody.
The analysis indicates that the prison estate had been operating at critically high levels for more than a decade. Occupancy has exceeded 95% for over twelve years, and at one point in 2024 fewer than 100 spaces were available across the adult male estate. Under the previous administration, prisons regularly operated at around 99% capacity, prompting warnings from senior police figures that “non-priority” arrests might have to be paused.
According to the Ministry of Justice, only 500 prison places were added to the estate over a 14-year period before the current Government took office. Ministers say this lack of capacity left the system vulnerable to collapse as charging rates, prosecutions and sentence lengths increased.
The Sentencing Act is intended to stabilise the system by slowing the projected rise in the prison population while expanding capacity at pace. Alongside changes to sentencing policy, the Government has committed up to £7 billion over the next five years to deliver 14,000 additional prison places by 2031. Of those, 2,900 places have already been completed, with more than 5,000 currently under construction.
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy said the figures highlighted the scale of the crisis inherited by the Government and described the situation as a “ticking time-bomb” caused by years of under-investment. He said the reforms form part of the Government’s wider Plan for Change and are designed to ensure there is always capacity to detain serious offenders.
The Sentencing Act also introduces changes to the recall system. Offenders who breach licence conditions will generally be returned to custody for a fixed period of 56 days, reducing the number held while awaiting Parole Board decisions for minor breaches. Serious and violent offenders will be excluded from this measure and will continue to require Parole Board approval for release.
Projections suggest the prison population would otherwise have risen by around 3,000 a year throughout the current Parliament. Ministers estimate that sentencing reforms will reduce the projected population by 7,500 by 2028, allowing the estate to be managed more sustainably while prioritising public safety.
The Act also makes publication of the Annual Prison Capacity Statement a statutory requirement, aimed at increasing transparency and preventing future capacity crises.