PAC warns that severe staff shortages and rising recalls are undermining public protection
Probation services in England and Wales are under such extreme strain that public safety is at risk, according to a new report from the Public Accounts Committee.
The report, published on 4 February 2026, examines the efficiency and resilience of the Probation Service and concludes that performance has deteriorated significantly since the service returned to full public control in 2021.
In the 2024–25 financial year, the HM Prison and Probation Service spent £1.34 billion on probation. Despite this, reoffending rates have risen, and the number of prisoners recalled to custody has reached a record level. At the end of March 2025, 13,583 people were in prison on recall, accounting for 15 percent of the total prison population and representing a 49 percent increase since June 2021.
The PAC found that the Probation Service met only seven of its 27 performance targets last year. Three years earlier, it was meeting around half of those targets. The committee said this decline raises serious concerns about the service’s ability to manage offenders safely in the community.
A major reform programme, Our Future Probation Service, has been introduced by HMPPS to address these issues. However, the committee expressed doubt that the programme will be sufficient, citing the Ministry of Justice’s poor track record in delivering large-scale digital change. The PAC also noted that key decisions about reducing levels of offender supervision have yet to be made, despite the potential risks involved.
Evidence to the inquiry showed that offenders assessed as low risk often still require support to prevent reoffending. Planned changes are expected to reduce supervision for these individuals while significantly expanding the use of electronic monitoring. The committee highlighted ongoing performance issues with electronic tagging, including delays by Serco in fitting tags, and called for greater clarity on how private and third-sector providers will support probation services.
Staffing pressures remain acute. The vacancy rate for probation officers has risen from 14 percent in 2021 to 21 percent in 2025. Officers are estimated to have been working at an average of 118 per cent capacity for several years, with evidence suggesting the true figure may be higher. The inquiry heard that the service operates in a culture marked by emotional strain and trauma.
The PAC also raised concerns about risk assessment. In 2024, probation practitioners adequately assessed the risk of harm in only 28 percent of cases, compared with 60 percent in 2018–19.
Commenting on the findings, Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, Chair of the Public Accounts Committee, said the probation service was failing and warned that the government’s immediate priority must be to avoid further worsening an already unsustainable situation.